14,267- This was the number of pharmacy degrees awarded last year.  As new pharmacy schools open and graduate more pharmacists, the job market is shrinking.  The Pharmacy Workforce Center (PWC) monitors pharmacists demand through use of the Aggregate Demand Index (ADI), where a value of 1 indicates high surplus, and 5 indicates a high demand.  In January 2016, the ADI was 3.05, which means that pharmacist demand and supply are equal.  The ADI is pharmacy-specific and has been steadily declining over the last ten years, as shown in the chart below.  When the ADI falls below 3.0, pharmacist supply will outpace demand.  Based on this trend, what does the future hold for pharmacists?

Pharmacists have known for years that the days of sign-on bonuses and company cars are over, but it may now be more difficult for new graduates to simply find a job.  However, the situation is not as dire as many have painted it, and a recent 2013 study still found that over 80% of students had a job or post-graduate program (residency, fellowship, etc.) lined up prior to graduating.  One effect from the increase in pharmacy graduates, for better or worse, is the proliferation and increased popularity of residencies and fellowships.  Whereas residencies were traditionally only geared towards those pursuing clinical pharmacy positions, residencies have now become a viable alternative plan for some students who are not otherwise able to find employment to augment their skills.

What is concerning in the last decade is the number of new pharmacy schools that have opened, which have more than made up for the pharmacist shortage.  The total colleges offering pharmacy programs is now over 130, with 16 new pharmacy schools opening in the last five years alone.  With six years of high tuition, opening a pharmacy school is lucrative for the school when all openings are filled.  However, few of these new schools have any regard for the effects their actions have on the profession.  In addition to difficulty finding employment in many geographic areas, the increased number of pharmacy schools is also putting a strain on pharmacies practice locations that act as rotation sites.  Geographic locations with multiple pharmacy schools may not have enough rotation sites to support the student population.

Absent moving to the south or western regions of the country where pharmacy demand remains high, pharmacists can seek additional certifications to improve their skills and make themselves more marketable.  While gaining provider status may help alleviate some of the job-shortage problems because of the potential for clinical service reimbursement, without sufficient payment, utilization of pharmacist-provided services will not significantly increase pharmacist demand.  As the baby boomer population ages, there should be a greater need for pharmacists providing clinical services, leading to a greater demand for pharmacists.  When the clinical services prove cost effective, the payer community will embrace them.  Cost effectiveness studies are underway, and initial results are promising.  In the meantime, pharmacists can only better themselves through certifications, uncovering new career opportunities, and advocating for the profession in government, at universities, and in our communities.